On the Road to a Depression

There have been articles lately warning that without meaningful bank reform, a Depression is coming...and it will be within the next three or four years.

Sound alarmist? I was still a bit on the fence but twenty minutes with Bill Moyers and his guests convinced me.

Watch progressive Representative from Ohio, Marcy Kaptur and Simon Johnson, former Chief Economist at the International Monetary Fund. He's one of the founders of the website Baselinescenario.com.


Bill Moyers Interview

How Far is Down?

The Dow, which Suze Ormond predicted could go as low as 8000 before bouncing back, is headed for new predicted lows of 6000. HSBC, Beneficial Household and Finance, is shutting down all eight hundred of its loan offices nationwide. 6100 jobs are gone.

The National Association of Realtors reports pending home sales are at a record low.

Gerald Celente, one of the gloomiest economic prophets out there, now announces in his Trends Report that "the greatest Depression has begun".

Unemployment is up, people are reportedly reluctant to accept job offers, preferring the bird in the hand. Mortgage lenders say the bubble of subprime mortgage foreclosures has moved on - now they're dealing with people who've lost their jobs.

It's pretty dim. So here's a question for you:

What, in your opinion, are the bright spots? What policies do you think show promise? Or more personally, how are you handling this onslaught of bad news...and when do you think things will begin to improve?

Watching the Jobs Go

This may just be too depressing - but look anyway. If you hide your head in the sand, you can't help, can you? There's a place you can go to see what jobs have been lost.

http://layofftracker.blogspot.com/

Why do you need to know this, you ask? Is it necessary to bury ourselves in this misery up to our necks just to feel connected? Well, maybe. But there's another reason.

Most of the problems this country has had stemmed from blind trust. We believed what we were told. Some of us were naive, some just gullible, others too lazy to check the facts. Or some combination of the above. Those days are over if we want things to get better. It's time to take responsibility, check the facts, know what's really going on and then make sure the people we elect to take action hear whatever opinion we have. Those opinions have extra gravitas because they're informed opinions, not knee-jerk "I heard it from him/her so it MUST be true!"

I know a guy who says his father used to yell at him for spouting out other people's opinions as fact. "Papagallo!" his dad hollered. (That's Italian for parrot.) "Make up your own mind!"

Good advice, America. Good advice, planet. Blindly following whoever sounds good or makes us feel better has gotten us into nothing but trouble. Any institution that insists on blind faith has some explaining to do. We are thinking creatures. We reason - or we should. Think, study and form your own conclusions.

So back to the litany of misery - we need to know what jobs are being lost and where. We need to be informed about how bad things are. We need to know if it's urgent. Because if we sit back and wait for politicians to make it all better with no pressure from us, we're going right over a cliff. And we will be the ones to blame.

It's Worse in Japan

The US is moaning by the side of the economy, clutching its cuts and bruises and complaining that the ambulance is taking too long to arrive.

Japan is lying quietly nearby, bleeding to death.

Frank Veneroso, who's invested in hedge funds for the World Bank along with many other big, big clients, says the Japanese economy is in the worst state ever - already worse than America's Great Depression. Industrial output could take just four months to fall almost as much as the total decline during the 30s in the US.

This is straight from Veneroso:

I have been writing about an Asian black hole for almost two months now. I have been crying from the rooftops about an emerging depression in Japan. It has been as though a neutron bomb had gone off in the world. There was no one who seemed to notice, no one who seemed to listen.

Every week it gets worse and worse and worse. Today it was Japan....

THERE HAS NEVER BEEN DATA THIS BAD FOR ANY MAJOR ECONOMY – EVEN IN THE GREAT DEPRESSION. December industrial production came in down 9.6%, worse than the METI forecast. It is now down almost 21% year over year. METI forecasts a further 4.7% decline in February. The inventory to production ratio soared again. Maybe METI will be correct.

If it is, Japan industrial production will have fallen 28% (non annualized) in four months. It will have fallen by a third in about a year. Nothing in the history of major nations compares. A 28% decline in four months would be more than half of the entire decline in U.S. industrial production over the 3 years and nine months of the U.S. Great Depression.

It would be a greater decline in four months than in any 12 month period in the Great Depression in the U.S. We are literally looking at the unimaginable. (I am attaching the U.S. industrial production index from the Great Depression for comparison).

IT’S A DEPRESSION IN JAPAN – ALREADY – PURE AND SIMPLE.



And who's compounding this mess, essentially guaranteeing that there's no saving the Japanese economy? Financial markets. They haven't learned a damned thing from the death spiral on Wall Street. Markets, according to Veneroso, are making Japan's injuries fatal by pushing the yen as a "safe haven" for investment as it teeters on the brink of disaster. In other words, investors are pushing the price of a yen higher and higher with nothing supporting it from behind. Sounds disgustingly like the real estate bubble, doesn't it? And yet it's happening. Again.

More from Veneroso:

The yen is strengthening massively against currencies all over. On a trade weighted basis, it is by far the strongest currency on the planet. There are long lags between changes in currencies, exchange rates and trade. The recent take off in the yen is not yet fully reflected in Japanese exports. The lags are too long. The weakness we are seeing in Japanese exports today is in large part derived from aggregate demand weakness from its trading partners. It is the result of an earlier appreciation in the yen for perhaps 120 yen to the dollar to 110 to the dollar or 100 to the dollar. And perhaps, most importantly, it is the result of a secular trend in which its lower wage neighbors in Asia are making inroads – big inroads – into the global markets which it has traditionally dominated as an exporter.

When the long lags between the yen exchange rate change and trade and industrial production fully run their course the land of the rising sun may fall off the face of the earth. And with it will fall all the market participants who refuse to look at fundamentals and chase chart witchcraft and ephemeral market dynamics who have been the big bulls engineering that yen exchange rate that will maximally undermine the markets, economy, and social fabric of Japan.


Thanks to http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/

Computers Are Crashing, Too

Just in case you didn't have enough to worry about, there's a digital pandemic that no one has yet figured out how to shut down. Is your computer already infected? Maybe.

Experts say it's a new Internet plague that seems to be the first step of a multistage attack...and computer security experts from the civilian and military worlds don't know who programmed it, or what the next stage will be. A malicious software program known as Conficker or Downadup is being spread thanks to a recently discovered MS Windows weakness. Thanks a lot, Microsoft. It also spreads through hand carried gadgets like USB keys.

Nine million personal computers are already believed to be infected.


Here's the scary part - these worms can then create a unified system of infected computers called botnets, which will then accept instructions from whoever authored the worm in the first place. An army of obedient digital slaves...and one of them could be your own PC.

An executive with Support Intelligence says if this is a digital Pearl Harbor, we're at the point where the Japanese ships are visible on the horizon.

Microsoft did an emergency patch in October, but it's still spreading. What can you do? If you've got a PC, update. And keep your fingers crossed.

Scary enough when it's your personal computer. How about when it's in your office? One infected computer will infect every computer on the network. And it's possible that what the botnets will steal the PC user's personal information.

Or maybe it'll just send out a lot of annoying spam.


Oh...on a totally different topic, if you've been thinking about visiting New Zealand, now's the time. The NZ dollar dropped to its lowest level in ten years against the US dollar after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hacked benchmark interest rates from 5 to 3.5 percent. Until now, RNBZ rates had been the highest of all industrialized nations.

Rioting to Work In Japan

Don't believe this is a global recession? The riots in Iceland aren't enough evidence? How about Japan, where hotel workers tried desperately to keep their employer open even after the place was shut down?

After Lehman Brothers went belly up, the Keihin Hotel was shut down in Tokyo and all 130 employees were told they were fired. The firm that owned the hotel owed 6 billion yen to a Japanese subsidiary of Lehman's. The workers resumed the hotel's operations the day after they were fired...and have been running it since October 21st.

A court order supported the owner's decision to sell and ordered police to seize the building. Want to see what desperation looks like? JapanProbe posted the video.

Japan Probe Blog

Circuit City Shorts Out - Cynicism Survives

34 thousand people will be out of work as Circuit City closes down its stores and shuts off the lights for good. A trip around Blogworld shows that while there's a lot of sympathy for the workers, there's very little to spare for Circuit City and its corporate officers.

A year ago, this was posted on Cynical-C's blog: http://www.cynical-c.com/?p=7078

No time to read? Let me sum it up for you.

In 2007, Circuit City laid off 3400 workers, effectively immediately, and replaced them with people who were paid significantly lower wages. The company targeted its most experienced and best paid employees for replacement and said so plainly. Those workers, the company said, were making more than the industry average. One study showed they were making about 51 cents an hour more than their counterparts at other stores - big, big bucks.

But to be fair, company CEO Philip Schoonover makes less than the industry standard; according to Forbes, he made 2.17 million dollars while comparable executives made 4.25 million.

Circuit City told those 3400 workers they could reapply for their old jobs, at minimum wage with no benefits, after they'd been on unemployment for ten weeks.

The Circuit City Slaughter, as one analyst called it, won the title of "Most Cynical Corporate Move Ever" from one industry watcher.

So after cutting its legs off, Circuit City is now stabbing itself in the head. But the 34 thousand people who worked there are the ones who will bleed.

They're Not Jumping Out of Windows, But They're Trying to Die

The stories I'd read on the failed attempts of a midwestern financial manager to fake his own death weren't terribly detailed. On the surface, they were downright funny. But there's more to the story and I'm not laughing now.

Marcus Schrenker apparently did try to fake his own death, did call in a false mayday from his single engine plane; did parachute out. But his journey nearly ended in a small tent as he tried to make his death a reality.

http://www.nypost.com/seven/01152009/news/nationalnews/butchered_lam_150254.htm

There will be more of these pitiful stories - I know of two confirmed recession-motivated suicides in downstate New York so far. These are people who had it all - and now they're losing it.

Part of me sneers - they can't handle living like the rest of us? But the better part of me hurts for them - it's not just money. It's their reputation, their self-esteem, the lives they knew that they feel they're losing through their own mistakes. Money is more than currency - it's who they once were.

President Obama wants to jump start a dead economy. There may be more riding on him than we realized.

*UPDATE* Let the Games Begin - Second Depression II-

Our roving boy has been found - here's the background, or skip to the end if you know it already:

As the ripples from Bernie Madoff's scam become a tsunami washing over global investors and carrying away their money, as the body of a European financier is removed from his Manhattan office, here's a little slice of reality from the BBC. They're watching.

38 year old Marcus Schrenker is missing after his plane crashed. It appears he did it to fake his own death.

Schrenker's financial management companies are in trouble. They're under investigation and are said to owe half a million dollars to an insurance company.

He took off in a single engine plane from a small Indiana airport this past weekend, bound for Florida. He was alone. Somewhere over Alabama, he made a distress call. His windshield, he said, had imploded and he was bleeding.

The rescue effort began - apparently a little more quickly than Mr. Schrenker anticipated. Military planes intercepted his little Piper and found it on autopilot, with the door hanging open. No pilot.

It soon crashed into an Alabama swamp, near a neighborhood. Police say there was no blood, no pilot, and no smashed windshield.

But our hero isn't totally missing - a man matching his description checked into an Alabama motel and explained his appearance as the result of a canoeing accident. He later was seen running off into the woods.

Do they have alligators in Alabama?

Apparently if they do, he dodged them, too.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7829868.stm

Spread the Word

The latest fiscal recovery package could be weeks, or even months, away. Major employers are cutting back - there are rumors that IBM will cut 16 thousand people nationwide later this month. Foreclosures are increasing, people offered new jobs hesitate, weighing security versus advancement. Minimum wage employers in New York City aren't hiring anyone who isn't available on the spot. Need to give two weeks notice to your employer? Sorry, there are a dozen others who want the job right now.

When everything hits the fan, we turn to each other. Even the most solitary among us crawls out of her 2 BR 2 BA hermitage and looks around at her fellow humans - "Hey - am I the only one who's going through this?"

And as others confirm that yes, they're going through similar trials, the burden eases just a little. We are not alone. And together we can brainstorm ways to cope, to survive and even to improve things.

That's what this blog is about. I want to hear your stories and the stories you've heard and seen firsthand. Studs Terkel chronicled the stories of the Great Depression. We can chronicle this one ourselves.

It will end. But what will the post-depression world look like? Where will we stand on the world stage - will we be a lead , a character actor occasionally drawing indulgent chuckles from the audience or a member of the Greek chorus?

What will our lives be like? We've passed peak oil - the cheap gas we're using today won't last. Will we have a green economy? Will our service economy make the shift back to a manufacturing economy?

Will the class system we've created collapse with the investments of the super-rich? Will the rich who hang on be even more elite?

This is a forum where we can share our thoughts, our fears, our predictions and our stories. Join the discussion, share your stories. Let other people know and invite them in. It's cold out there when you're all alone.

Stories From the Second Depression - Part One

I won't mention his name, but he's someone I've known for years. He was a friend of my father and as I grew older, he became my friend, too. He had no children and his longest term relationship lasted about ten years, but he never married.

He worked for a major city as an engineer. He was good at what he did, he was proud of his work. I've heard horror stories about months on projects in derelict neighborhoods where he never felt safe. He worked hard. He saved his money.

He retired to New Mexico about fifteen years ago and he should have had a very comfortable retirement. He invested in stocks, in gold, in a house, and he had money left over to help a friend put herself through school and, eventually, pay her daughter's tuition when she got to school age.

He's over seventy and had a health scare last year - his knees were already gone and now his heart was acting up. There was talk of an open heart surgery. He, instead, went on a strict healthy eating and exercise regimen (he swims, as it's the only exercise his arthritic knees can handle) and he's dodged the surgery so far. He loves good food, he loves to go watch the trains that pass through the small town near his home. He has a cup of coffee in the same place with the same people every morning. He likes his life.

He called me when Lehman Brothers collapsed.

"I just lost eighty thousand dollars in one day," he said. He wasn't angry, just incredulous. The anger came later.

As the economic news continued to worsen, he saw most of his savings evaporate. His phone calls, begun as a way to help me past my father's death, have become a place where he can vent.

"This isn't how my life was supposed to be. I was always careful with my money. You know me - I squeezed a nickel until it screamed. Thank God I paid off my house when I saw this coming - but now I may have to take out one of those reverse mortgages. I worked all my life to be sure I wouldn't have to worry about money."

His story is like many others across this country and around the world. He started off at an advantage - he had savings to lose. But that advantage is nearly gone. What about the elderly people on fixed incomes who have no cushion at all?

There's a price to this economy that we're not talking about yet. There's a depression going on - an emotional depression. Young people are worried about their future. Parents are worried for their children's future. People at or nearing retirement age are the ones most concerned - they have no time, no possibility to retrench, rebuild, start over.

Growing old isn't easy - there are aches, pains, limitations and the forced acceptance of mortality. Now there is an added worry - what will they do if the money runs out?

Calling For Stories

This blog is called everyday people. I conceived, initially, of a place where I could share the stories of some of the inspiring people I met through my radio show. Instead, the feverish months up to the presidential election transformed this virtual space into an area where I could vent my frustrations, scream my anger and shout my hope.

It is time to consciously change the direction of this blog, and bring it back closer to my original intent.

I want to hear your stories, and I will share the ones you will allow me to share. I want to hear what's happening to you and your family, how secure your employment feels or what's happening to you if you've lost your job. I want to hear how the recession is affecting you - and if you want to call it a depression I won't argue with you.

I want this blog to be a place where all of us can be heard...and as we all begin to speak together our voices will be louder. We are truly all in this together. And it is time for the Everyday People Project to finally live up to its name.

Write to me at everydaypeopleproject@gmail.com Tell me your stories, tell me if you are willing to allow me to share them or if you are writing just because you had to tell somebody, but you're not willing to tell everybody. Send me photos if you want. Write a poem.

Share your story. It matters.

It's Official - December Has Arrived and It's a Recession!

It's taken a year for them to admit it, but the braintrust in Washington is now admitting that we've been in a recession since last December...and that means it's already lasted longer than many past downturns. When will it end? We have to hit bottom first.

Suze Ormon, who I get a big kick out of and whose common sense I admire, predicted the stock market would bottom out at around 8000 when I saw her a couple of months ago. I'll bet she's revised that forecast.

Jim Cramer, the madman of CNBC, is making a lot of 'sell!" noises when he talks about Wall Street and I recently spoke with someone who has done just that. Her broker advised her to pull out whatever she had left and just keep it in cash for awhile. "Wait and see," he said.

My kids, both of whom you might expect to find ensconced in dorms at a college, are each heading to work, with school dropping to a part time activity. It's not because of the economy - their reasons are as individual as they are. But I find myself thinking that perhaps they're doing the right thing - their classmates will be graduating in a couple of years and will very likely be finding themselves doing any job they can get just to make ends meet. At least my kids will be working, hopefully safe on the twin merits of their abilities and seniority.

What about us? We hang on and we hope. It's going to be close. And I take some strange comfort in knowing that as things go from bad to possibly worse, we're all in this together. How can you feel like some kind of cosmic target when everyone you know is facing the same pain?

We will come out of this. Everything is cyclical. And it's this generation's turn to understand what hard times feel like. Perhaps the lessons we learn will make us a better society.

Oh, Never Mind.

At the end of September Chicken Little announced the sky was falling. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson wanted money - a lot of money - to prevent catastrophe on Wall Street. Ask me no questions, I'll tell you no lies, Paulson suggested. No strings, no questions, no oversight.

Congress, in one of the few times it managed to overcome its lack of a spine, said no.
No way.

But as Wall Street continued its free fall, it was clear Washington couldn't stand by and do nothing. So they passed the Troubled Asses Regulation Pogrom. TARP was given 700 billion dollars to buy up "illiquid assets"...junk, in other words, that no one wanted to get stuck with. But nothing was going to be done for homeowners across the country who were losing their homes. It would, they hoped, trickle down.

That never did work, but the country is still so enamored of Ronald Reagan that they won't admit it.

So now it's November. Wall Street is still crashing, we have a new president-elect, our outgoing president wants to stay the course, and Paulson has already spent much of the money. AIG's got to be happy - they've gotten a healthy infusion of cash. Of course they're frittering it away and giving the 24 hour news cycle fuel for another turn.

Paulson says the original strategy isn't working. We noticed. And he's already got a whole lot less money to spend than he did. Now he's going to give it to banks. Our president-elect wants an auto bailout. The guy sitting in the Oval Office until January doesn't.

I'm no fan of Detroit, but it doesn't seem like we can afford to let an industry that employs three million people go broke. They've got us over a barrel.

Have you looked at real estate ads in California lately? Look at houses for rent. Look at houses for sale. See what this really looks like. "Live in the style you're used to - for less!" promises one ad. "$200/month off NOW!" says another. "Good credit required...income of 100K verified before approval." It's an economy sliding out of control. It's worse in some places than others, but it's going to spread.

And Hank Paulson's the guy holding the money. Unfortunately, not only does he not know what he can do to help, he seems to be one of those people who won't listen to anyone else. So we'll just keep sliding until January, then hope the Obama transition team has come up with a brilliant plan to help us dig in. And if he has an idea and Congress fights him, there's going to have to be an outcry so loud that they don't dare fight us.

Tales From the Trenches

Time out for a reality check. Yes, I'm optimistic about this president. Yes, I believe he will do all he can in tough times. And yes, I have my doubts that things are going to get better for most of us anytime soon.



I am anxiously watching every bit of news pertaining to banks' willingness to renegotiate mortgages with people who are hanging on to their homes by their teeth. I am one of them. So far, my bank can't do anything for me - I haven't missed a payment, I have a decent interest rate. No one could predict that the economy would tank and money we budgeted for has not materialized.

I am sorely tempted to stop paying. My daily stress would drop instantly, I'd have money for other bills (and no, I don't have tremendous debt besides the mortgage - that's the one that's killing me), and my bank would perhaps be willing to work with me if I was in default. Of course, I could also lose my home and everything I've invested in it. Catch 22.

I know a retired person who has lost his life savings - a substantial sum. He paid off his home, and now is looking at a reverse mortgage so he could have money for necessary expenses. He doesn't want to do it - he wanted to leave his family a home when he is gone.

I know a man who would sell a car to get some ready cash - no one will buy it. No one CAN buy it.

I know a man whose finances are in good order - but he's scared to death that his many years of service at one company makes him a target for a cost-cutting layoff. He makes more than others with less experience.

I know a family that's quietly paid the taxes on a less fortunate relative's home for years. And now they're wondering how long they'll continue to do it. What happens when those relatives have to move? Where will they go?

These are troubling times. There are thousands of other stories - millions of them. And there are going to be more. It's not an American depression - it's a global depression. And it's hard to see how long it will last and what will start to pull us out of it.

The only thing I'm certain of is that we will have to all be pulling together.

What Goes Around Comes Around - Or, Welcome to the New Depression

I'm immersed in economy stories right now. Local communities are trying to draw up proposed budgets and no matter how careful they've been in the past, they're going to be hurting. And if they haven't been careful, it's a bloodbath.

One city did a long-overdue revaluation this past year. The timing is proving to be awful, as many property owners face as much as a 14 percent hike in their taxes because of it.

It's worse in another city - they discovered that they've been overcharging commercial landowners for more than a decade. If those taxpayers sue, the city will go bankrupt. And whether they sue or not, the residential property taxes have to go up to where they should have been all along. Initially, that meant a 25 percent tax increase. The mayor knew that was unconscionable, so he slashed the budget to the bone and got it down to 8.5.

Then there's the housing crunch. Values are dropping, salaries aren't rising and people who bought homes they could barely (or just plain couldn't) afford once the economy crashed and some sources of income dried up are hanging on by their fingernails. Foreclosure counseling programs will tell you to start talking to your bank about restructuring your loan before you miss a payment. But good luck. Banks, even banks that are comfortably nestled in the loving arms of the feds, won't talk to you if you haven't missed a payment.

Catch 22.

HSO and I went to the UN last week to attend a black tie event honoring philanthropists. And even the Beautiful People are worried.

"What," a doctor who's travelled the globe to do good, "happens to giving when the money dries up?"

What indeed. It's called a depression for a very good reason, not the least of which is its emotional impact on everyone involved.

The Craziest Good Idea I've Ever Heard

TRENDS RESEARCH INSTITUTE SUPPORTS MODIFIED BAILOUT PLAN RHINEBECK NY 24 September 2008 -- The $700 billion bailout plan now before Congress could re-invigorate the economy, asserts Gerald Celente, Director of TheTrends Research Institute. But he warned that success will require certain revisions. The Trends Research Institute has thoroughly analyzed the exhaustive 3 1/2 page document presented to Congress for approval. "We read every word of it!" said Celente. "While we don't agree with bailouts in general, if Congress decides to spend $700 billion of taxpayer money, it must be done efficiently. The revisions we are suggesting, though minor, are crucial to implementing the plan successfully," Celente said. "The bailout plan being debated before Congress, 'The Troubled Asset Relief Program' (TARP) is fraught with uncertainties and unanswerable questions," said Celente. "On the other hand, The Trends Research Institute's revised plan is guaranteed to stimulate economic growth, reduce unemployment, lower taxes, eliminate consumer debt and balance the budget," Celente predicts. Under TARP, US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is granted sole authority to dispense $700 billion as he sees fit. Paulson said the money would be used to mainly cover losses incurred by failing financial firms, brokerages, investment banks, leveraged buyout firms, insurance agencies, and any other financial entity deemed "too big to fail." Under the alternative Trends Research Institute Program (TRIP), $700 billion would not be dispensed at the sole discretion of the Economic Czar. Rather, under TRIP the $700 billion would be distributed equally among the 200,000,000 taxpayers who put the money up. "TRIP is not a bailout plan, it's a stimulus package," said Celente. "Unlike TARP, which is doomed to fail, our plan provides immediate relief. With TARP all the money goes to a handful of failing institutions with the hope that some trickles down to the working public. "With TRIP, each taxpayer will directly receive a $3.5 million stimulus check. This will instantly generate economic growth, end the housing crisis, reduce unemployment, eliminate consumer debt and balance the budget. "There is no time to debate TRIP," warned Celente. "Immediate action must be taken. Inaction or delay risks an economic Armageddon. While Congress is wrangling over how much to pay overpaid CEO's under TARP, TRIP could be instantly written into law, solving the economic woes of our nation." Trendpost: Once you receive your TRIP check, try to refrain from buying more than one Ferrari. Invest wisely. Consider putting your money in a Trends Research Investment Plan (TRIP 2). While not yet government sanctioned, we expect swift approval once TRIP becomes law. "If Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley can become banks overnight by government decree, why not us?" asked Celente. Call to Action: If you want your fair share of the $700 billion, call your Congressman and Senators. Tell them you want TRIP not TARP. Now that you're excited (I sure was!) I must add the post script. This notice was followed by a disclaimer. Apparently it was meant to be satirical...and worse yet, the actual number each taxpayer would get if the 700 billion was divvied up was 35 hundred...not 3.5 million. I don't think 3500 will do much to help most people faced with no job or the loss of their homes.

Life With an Indie Musician

www.cdbaby.com/kevinbartlett2

www.myspace.com/kevinbartlettmusic


America is a very odd place. We love creative people - we admire them, we idolize them when they're famous, we envy them even when they're not. But we sure don't make it easy for them to be creative.

That starving artist in a garret is so romantic. It's one of the reasons we took "Rent" to our hearts...the bohemian rebels who would rather die than conform are the people we wish we could be. Until we get hungry, of course.

I've learned a lot from living with a man who has too much talent, too many ideas and will never have enough time to share all the music he hears in his head. It's a constant inner battle - does he choose security or does he choose to be true to the gift he's been given? Every CD is an open-handed offering of something intensely personal, something true, something beautiful, to the world. And every sale is not only a few dollars to help pay the bills, but a confirmation that those sounds in his head are as unique and worthwhile as he hopes they are.

Why does our country put our artists on a pedestal, but not support them as they do the work we admire? Where is the program that offers creativity the security that allows it to continue?

It's not just musicians. Painters, writers, poets, sculptors, artists of all kinds are forced every day to choose between doing what they know they are here to do and doing what they have to do to eat and pay the rent.

Go ahead - tell me it builds character. I don't buy it. If a child is gifted in math or science, we are thrilled, knowing those studies will lead to jobs that will give them comfortable lives. If a child is a gifted artist we worry.

"How will you make a living?" we ask.

And many, many of them give up the one thing that they truly love to do because it just can't be done in our nine to five world. The world is poorer because of it.

I recently interviewed the author of Furious Improvisation
It's a book about Hallie Flanagan and the WPA's theatre project during the Depression.
It got me thinking. A make-work project for artists launched the careers of Orson Welles, John Houseman and many others. The plays they put on were cutting edge; sometimes so cutting edge that they were considered subversive. They pushed at society's rules, integrating the casts, giving minorities lead roles, dramatizing the social and economic problems of the times. Eventually, the project was abandoned as the country's fear of communism built toward the blacklisting that would eventually rip through the performing arts and leave many careers ruined along the way.

The Depression (and will it still be capitalized once the new depression is upon us?) showed us the best and worst we could do for artists. The government put actors and playwrites to work at a desperate time. And the country's fear and narrow mindedness tried to restrict what those artists could do...finally shutting them down.

I want to live in a country that values creativity as highly as it values money. Does such a place exist?

I'm With You, Chicken Little

You've probably heard that old proverb...or is it a curse..."May you live in interesting times."

This is it, kids. It doesn't get much more interesting than this.

Lehmann is kaputski. The USA is now in charge of the alphabet gang...AIG, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. It's propping up Bear Stearns. And Bank of America is taking over the planet, since it's one of the few institutions left that can afford to.

I wonder where the federal government's getting all this bailout money. We're already trillions in debt. We're spending billions every month on a war that doesn't show any signs of concluding. Common sense tells you you can't keep spending what you don't have.

Gerald Celente is an economic forecaster who works out of a quaint old building that used to be my dad's favorite grocery store. He's been called a hack, a quack and a doom and gloomer...and now he's being called a genius. How come? He predicted this. I spoke with him months ago and he assured me we were in for the worst economic time this country's seen since the so-called Great Depression. (What was great about it I couldn't say.) He was vilified by some in the press for his extreme views. The acid dripping off the newsprint sounded suspiciously like it was written by someone who was very afraid of hearing something they didn't want to hear. Now Oprah wants to hear what he has to say. Celente's website is a bit over the top, but what he has to say has the uncomfortable ring of unwelcome fact. Read for yourself.

http://www.trendsresearch.com/

In case you want to paint Celente as some kind of alarmist renegade, meet Nouriel Roubini. He's a professor at NYU who, until this week, was known as Dr. Doom. Now he's known as a pundit.

http://bucknakedpolitics.typepad.com/buck_naked_politics/2008/08/how-reality-v-1.html

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/

United Socialist State Republic of America. Oh my.

I mentioned Roubini to Celente. Celente's not one to give compliments lightly.

"Oh, him," he said. "I like him."

So two economic forecasters who were considered sensationalist Chicken Littles are now being hailed as economic Edgar Cayce's. Funny place, funny race, as HSO often says.

But if we're now going to credit these guys with some smarts, what do they say is next?

Celente pulls no punches.

"This is no recession. It's a depression. And it's going to get a lot worse."

What does he suggest? Cut back. Economize. Stay close to home. Buy local. Work close to home.

"Support your community. The only way we're going to get through this is by building our communities and supporting each other."